South Africa is on the brink of a significant natural gas shortage projected to strike between 2026 and 2027.
This looming crisis—widely referred to as the “gas cliff”—could have far-reaching consequences on the nation’s industrial productivity, energy security, and employment levels.
At the core of this development lies a critical dependence on depleting gas reserves from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields, which currently supply over 99% of the country’s natural gas needs.
Mozambique Supply in Decline
For years, South Africa has relied heavily on natural gas imported via the ROMPCO pipeline from Mozambique. However, gas production from these key fields is nearing its end.
Sasol, the major importer and processor of this gas, has confirmed that production may cease by mid-2027 due to resource exhaustion and waning commercial viability.
Without viable alternatives in place, South Africa could face a sudden and severe drop in gas supply, leading to what experts are calling a national energy and economic emergency.
What’s at Stake?
1. Industrial Disruption
Natural gas is the lifeblood of South Africa’s manufacturing, petrochemical, food processing, and steel industries.
It powers operations, fuels processes, and enables competitiveness. An abrupt shortage could stall or shut down entire industrial segments.
According to Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA), industries relying on natural gas contribute between R300 billion and R500 billion to the national GDP—around 5% of the economy.
2. Massive Job Losses
An estimated 70,000 jobs are directly at risk, and even more could be affected indirectly through economic ripple effects. Key regions such as Gauteng and Mpumalanga, home to major industrial clusters, stand to bear the brunt of these job losses.
3. Energy Security Threat
With Eskom still struggling to stabilize South Africa’s electricity supply, natural gas plays a growing role in supporting grid reliability and supplementing power generation.
The gas cliff could severely limit the country’s ability to mitigate future electricity shortfalls, especially during peak demand periods.
Government and Industry Response
In anticipation of the crisis, a series of policy and infrastructure initiatives have been launched:
1. Draft Gas Master Plan
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has introduced a Draft Gas Master Plan aimed at creating a diversified and sustainable gas economy. The plan outlines strategies for import diversification, domestic exploration, and infrastructure expansion.
2. LNG Import Projects
Key among the proposed solutions is the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Plans are underway to bring LNG into South Africa through strategic port cities like Richards Bay and Maputo.
The Matola Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) project in Mozambique is one such development expected to enable LNG imports into the regional pipeline network.
However, challenges remain. Infrastructure development timelines suggest many projects won’t be operational until after 2028—too late to prevent the gas cliff unless emergency measures are taken.
3. Eskom-Sasol Collaboration
Eskom and Sasol have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore joint gas procurement and infrastructure development.
The partnership is a bid to safeguard energy supply, reduce reliance on coal, and explore cleaner energy alternatives through shared investments.
What Needs to Happen Next
Experts warn that South Africa must accelerate LNG terminal development, invest in domestic gas exploration (e.g., Karoo shale and offshore prospects), and fast-track public-private partnerships to meet the urgency of the moment.
“Timing is everything,” notes energy economist Lungile Mashele. “If we do not bridge the gap between gas depletion and new supply, the country risks a deepening energy and economic crisis.”
South Africa’s looming gas shortage is not just a technical supply issue—it’s a looming national emergency that threatens livelihoods, industrial output, and energy stability.
While the government’s policy responses and industrial collaborations are a step in the right direction, time is running out.
Unless immediate action is taken to secure alternative gas supplies, South Africa may find itself unprepared to weather the storm beyond 2027.
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