Johannesburg,19 May 2026-Global steel prices have surged across almost every major market in April and early May 2026.
Brazil is emerging as the world’s strongest-performing steel market and China’s output continuing to contract — a combination that is reshaping supply chains and pushing up construction material costs in regions that depend on seaborne steel, including sub-Saharan Africa.
The findings come from Goldman Sachs’ latest Global Steel Market Barometer — May Update, one of the most closely watched benchmarks in the industry.
The report documents price increases in hot-rolled coil (HRC) and long steel products across virtually every major steel-producing and trading region, driven by a mix of tightening supply, robust infrastructure demand, and geopolitical disruption to shipping routes.
Brazil Steals the Spotlight
The standout performer in Goldman Sachs’ data is Brazil, which recorded a 10% month-on-month increase in HRC prices in April alone — the sharpest single-month gain of any region tracked in the report.
On a year-to-date basis, Brazil’s HRC price performance has been the strongest in Goldman Sachs’ sample, up 21%, well ahead of the United States at 15% and European markets, which posted gains in the 6% to 13% range.
Brazil’s gains extended into long steel as well. Rebar prices in the country climbed 12% month-on-month in April — again the sharpest increase globally — followed by Europe at 6.9% and the Black Sea region at 6.1%.
The surge in Brazilian slab export reference prices, which reached a two-year high of approximately $605 per tonne in early April, has amplified the country’s influence on global pricing benchmarks.
“On a YTD basis, Brazil’s HRC steel price performance has been the strongest in our sample (+21%), followed by the US (+15%) with other regions also showing price increases from 6%–13%.” — Goldman Sachs, Global Steel Market Barometer, May 2026
China: Output Under Pressure, Reforms Delayed
China — by far the world’s largest steel producer — presents a more complex picture.
While domestic HRC prices rose 2.9% month-on-month in April and steel rebar futures briefly hit their strongest level since August 2025 following the May Day holiday, China’s actual production output is contracting.
Steel output in China fell 3.2% year-on-year in the first two weeks of May, according to Goldman Sachs.
The bank attributed the production decline to delayed implementation of the government’s planned capacity cuts, rather than a genuine reduction in industrial capacity.
Steel inventories in China have now drawn down for seven consecutive weeks, pointing to tightening near-term supply in the physical market — a dynamic that has temporarily supported domestic pricing even as reform timelines slip.
| GOLDMAN SACHS ON CHINA
“While the anti-involution effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026 in terms of both capacity and production discipline.” The bank notes that excess supply pressures therefore remain, even as output numbers temporarily decline. |
Despite the property sector downturn that has long weighed on Chinese steel demand, infrastructure investment in China excluding water and power rose 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 — providing a meaningful demand floor for construction steel and helping to sustain pricing momentum in long steel products.
India: The Production Growth Story
While Brazil leads on price performance, India is the standout story on the supply side. India’s crude steel production growth accelerated to 11% year-on-year in March 2026, compared to 10% growth year-to-date and 7% growth in February — making it one of the fastest-growing steel markets globally, according to Goldman Sachs.
The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to rise 0.3% in 2026 to 1.724 billion tonnes, and accelerate 2.2% next year to 1.762 billion tonnes.
India’s growth trajectory positions it as a central pillar of that demand expansion, particularly as China’s property sector continues to weigh on domestic consumption in the world’s largest market.
Price Movements at a Glance
| Region | HRC (Apr MoM) | HRC (YTD) | Rebar (Apr MoM) |
| Brazil | +10% | +21% | +12% |
| Japan | +6.5% | +N/A | +N/A |
| United States | +N/A | +15% | +N/A |
| Europe | +N/A | +6–13% | +6.9% |
| China | +2.9% | +N/A | Stable |
| Black Sea Region | +N/A | +N/A | +6.1% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Steel Market Barometer, May 2026. HRC = Hot-Rolled Coil. MoM = Month-on-Month. YTD = Year-to-Date.
Geopolitics and Freight Add Pressure
The price surge is not solely a function of demand.
Geopolitical tensions — including shipping disruptions linked to conflict in the Gulf — have significantly elevated freight costs on key steel trade routes, adding a logistics premium on top of producer price increases.
A major Gulf Cooperation Council steel producer raised prices for a key product in March, a move directly connected to shipping restrictions in a critical maritime strait.
Asian markets have experienced particularly acute supply pressure. Indonesian producers of hot-rolled steel reported slab shortages, partly linked to the withdrawal of Iranian steel semi-finished products from seaborne trade.
Average slab prices in Japan increased by approximately $20 per tonne in the first half of April alone.
The combination of higher producer prices, elevated freight rates, and constrained slab availability has led many international buyers — including those in developing markets — to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach to new purchasing commitments.
What This Means for African Construction
Africa is not insulated from these dynamics. The continent’s infrastructure sector is a significant importer of steel — particularly rebar, structural sections, and flat products — from China, India, the Gulf, and increasingly Brazil.
Rising prices in all of these origin markets, combined with higher freight costs on major shipping lanes, translate directly into elevated landed costs for contractors and project developers across sub-Saharan Africa.
For Kenya, South Africa, and other African markets currently executing large-scale infrastructure programmes — including road construction, bridge works, and energy infrastructure — the timing is difficult.
Construction contracts awarded at prices set six to twelve months ago now face material cost overruns, particularly on steel-intensive civil engineering works.
| AFRICA MARKET CONTEXT
South Africa’s steel market is also subject to domestic pricing pressure from ArcelorMittal South Africa’s ongoing restructuring challenges, meaning imported steel plays an increasingly critical price-setting role in the local construction materials market. With both import origin prices and freight costs rising simultaneously in 2026, contractors face a compounding cost squeeze. |
Outlook: Broadly Stable, With US Premium Holding
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects steel prices to remain broadly stable across major markets through the remainder of 2026.
However, the bank maintains that US steel prices will stay structurally stronger than those in Europe, China, and Brazil — a divergence underpinned by US tariff policy and domestic demand for structural steel in manufacturing and energy infrastructure.
Longer-term forecasters are more cautious. Analysis from Steelonthenet.com, published in March 2026, noted that global steel capacity is projected to surge by 165 million tonnes by 2027, threatening to push utilisation rates down to around 70% from the current 78–79%.
The OECD has separately warned that global steelmaking overcapacity could exceed 700 million tonnes by 2027 — a structural overhang that may cap any sustained price recovery once the current demand-supply imbalance corrects.
“Infrastructure investment (excluding water and power) in China rose 8.9% year-on-year in Q1 2026 — providing a critical demand floor beneath global long steel markets.”
For construction industry buyers in Africa and elsewhere, the near-term message is clear: steel costs are elevated and unlikely to fall sharply in 2026.
Procurement teams working on major projects would be well advised to review hedging strategies, update cost models with current market data, and monitor developments in Chinese supply-side reform and Gulf shipping disruptions — the two most consequential wildcards in the global steel price story for the remainder of this year.
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