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Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The State of the UK Construction Industry in 2026: Growth, Challenges, Opportunities and What Lies Ahead

EVENTS SPOTLIGHT

Executive Summary
UK Construction Industry Outlook 2026

The UK construction industry enters the second half of 2026 in an unusually divided state. Headline indicators remain resilient, with total construction output valued at £142.2 billion, contributing approximately 6% of UK GDP, and employing more than two million people. Yet beneath these figures, market conditions have deteriorated sharply. The Construction Products Association now forecasts a 2.5% contraction in output during 2026 as geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and rising construction costs weigh on confidence.

The downturn is concentrated in private housing and repair, maintenance and improvement (RM&I), while infrastructure continues to expand thanks to major investments in transport, energy and water projects. Data centres, logistics facilities and office refurbishments are also outperforming, supported by AI-driven digital infrastructure and e-commerce growth.

Looking ahead, most industry forecasts anticipate recovery from 2027, provided geopolitical pressures ease and government infrastructure programmes remain on track. The defining theme of 2026 is therefore not broad-based decline, but a widening gap between struggling housing markets and resilient infrastructure and technology-led construction.

Key Insight: The UK construction market is increasingly defined by divergence rather than decline. Housing remains under pressure, while infrastructure, digital construction and AI-related projects continue to create significant opportunities.


 

Current Size of the UK Construction Market

Construction remains one of the UK’s largest and most strategically important industries. Total construction output reached £142.2 billion in 2024, almost unchanged from £142.5 billion in 2023 but 2.9% higher than in 2022, reflecting a market that has plateaued in real terms even as costs have risen.

Construction gross value added (GVA) stood at approximately £142 billion, equivalent to around 6% of total UK GDP.

The workforce underpinning this output has been shrinking even as output has held steady. An average of 2,070,035 people worked in UK construction across 2025, a fall of 0.9% on 2024 and 13.0% below the 2,379,276 employed in 2005.

The Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) projects the workforce will need to grow to around 2.68 million by 2030 to keep pace with forecast demand across housing, infrastructure and retrofit.

Metric Value Period
Total construction output £142.2 billion 2024
Construction share of UK GDP ~6% 2024
UK construction workforce 2.07 million 2025 average
Annual output growth +1.8% 2025 (5th consecutive year)
Construction insolvencies 3,973 (17% of UK corporate insolvencies) Year to July 2025

 

The market is dominated by three broad segments of roughly comparable scale: private housing, private housing RM&I, and infrastructure, with commercial, industrial and public non-housing work making up the remainder.

This structure explains why national headline figures can mask sharply divergent fortunes at sector level – a theme that runs through this entire report.

Latest Construction Output Figures

ONS data shows a construction sector that has been stabilising on a monthly basis through the first half of 2026, even as the annual growth trajectory has turned negative.

Monthly construction output grew by 0.7% in January 2026, 0.5% in February, and 1.5% in March – the third consecutive monthly increase – before growth slowed to just 0.1% in April as new orders began to weaken.

Comparing quarters, total output rose 0.4% in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, but was down 1.3% year-on-year, with new work falling 5.8% annually even as repair and maintenance rose 5.3%.

Total construction new orders fell sharply by 10.5% (£1,238 million) in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025, driven mainly by declines in private commercial new work and infrastructure new work – an early warning sign that fed directly into the CPA’s downgraded Spring forecast.

Annual construction output price growth eased to just 0.8% in the twelve months to March 2026, well below the elevated rates of recent years, although this is expected to reverse as energy-driven materials inflation feeds through in the second half of the year.

Glenigan’s underlying starts data – which tracks the value of projects breaking ground rather than output on existing sites – paints an even more volatile picture.

Residential starts fell by around 30% year-on-year in the three months to both January and March 2026, driven by exceptionally wet ground conditions in early 2026 combined with weak buyer and developer confidence.

Non-residential and civils starts have been considerably more mixed, with office and industrial project starts remaining comparatively resilient even as infrastructure and utilities starts swung sharply between quarters.

Housing Construction Performance

Private housing is both the largest single segment of UK construction output and the sector under the most acute pressure in 2026.

After a difficult two years, housebuilders entered 2026 with cautious optimism, but the CPA’s Spring 2026 forecast now expects private housing output to fall 7.0% across the year and remain flat in 2027 – a sharp downgrade from the 4% growth pencilled in for 2026 just months earlier.

Private housing RM&I, the second-largest segment of the entire industry and a barometer of homeowner confidence, is forecast to fall 8.0% in 2026, compounding an already subdued 2025.

The structural housing challenge sits alongside this cyclical downturn. The government’s target of delivering 1.5 million homes over the current Parliament equates to roughly 370,000 net additional dwellings per year.

Independent fact-checking analysis found that between July 2024 and March 2026 the government added a net 342,100 homes to the housing stock – around 22.8% of the total target – implying the pace of delivery needs to increase substantially to stay on track.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s own projection points to cumulative net additions of around 1.49 million by 2029/30, close to but still short of the headline goal.

Government policy continues to lean heavily on planning reform to close this gap.

The revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), first overhauled in December 2024 and further consulted on through a draft published in December 2025, has reintroduced mandatory local housing targets, redefined lower-quality “grey belt” land for development, and introduced fast-track rules for well-designed schemes and housing near well-connected train stations.

A new National Scheme of Delegation, standardised design “pattern books” for SME builders, and an extra £48 million to fund around 1,400 new planning officers are all intended to speed up approvals, which have fallen to their lowest level in a decade.

Following growth in February exceeding expectations, March’s return will give further heart to the industry… but the sector will be sounding a note of caution as factors such as continued unpredictability in the Middle East and rising inflation will continue to have an impact.

— Clive Docwra
Managing Director, McBains

Beyond the near-term correction, most independent forecasters expect housebuilding to recover from 2027.

Glenigan’s Summer 2026 forecast anticipates private housebuilding rebounding 13% in 2027 and a further 5% in 2028, driven by lower borrowing costs, improving consumer confidence, and planning reforms unlocking additional sites.

Social and affordable housing is expected to track a similar path, supported by the government’s £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme and a new £16 billion National Housing Bank.

Infrastructure Projects Driving Growth

Infrastructure is the clearest bright spot in the 2026 UK construction market and the only major sector the CPA still expects to grow this year, up 3.2% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

This resilience reflects the nature of infrastructure funding: long-term contracts, regulated investment cycles (such as the water sector’s AMP8 programme) and multi-year government commitments that are largely shielded from short-term swings in consumer or business confidence.

The project pipeline remains enormous. HS2’s Phase 1 between London and Birmingham continues to advance, with 70% of earthworks delivered and tunnelling under Euston under way, although in May 2026 the government confirmed the programme will take longer and cost more than previously set out following an extensive delivery reset led by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild.

Nuclear remains a cornerstone of the energy transition, with Hinkley Point C – valued at upwards of £32-40 billion – now moving into its mechanical, electrical and HVAC installation phase, and the £38 billion Sizewell C project transitioning from planning into full physical delivery in Suffolk.

Project Sector Approx. Value
HS2 Phase 1 (London–Birmingham) Rail £25.3bn funded (Spending Review)
Hinkley Point C Nuclear energy £32bn–£40bn
Sizewell C Nuclear energy £38bn
Lower Thames Crossing Roads £10bn
East West Rail (Bletchley–Cambridge) Rail £6bn
Dogger Bank Offshore Wind Farm Renewables £9bn

 

Government strategy documents reinforce this direction of travel. The UK’s ten-year infrastructure strategy commits £35.5 billion to rail investment between 2026 and 2032, alongside continued support for the TransPennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, and rail enhancements in Wales.

Electricity network expansion is also accelerating, with the National Energy System Operator tasked with producing a Strategic Spatial Energy Plan in 2026 to address the doubling of transmission infrastructure required by 2030 to support clean power targets.

A note of caution: investor confidence in UK infrastructure delivery has been dented in recent years by cost overruns on HS2, water sector financial distress, and high-profile operational failures.

Even so, a recent survey found 90% of global investors still rank the UK as an attractive infrastructure investment destination over the next three years, and the Mansion House Accord has seen 17 major UK pension providers commit to allocating 10% of default funds to private markets by 2030 – a potential new source of infrastructure capital.

Commercial Construction Outlook

Commercial construction is forecast to contract 3.7% in 2026 according to the CPA, reflecting weak demand for large speculative new-build office and retail schemes.

Yet this headline figure conceals one of the more interesting divergences in the market: offices themselves have been among the standout performers of the past year, bucking the wider commercial downturn.

Glenigan data shows office project starts rising 37% quarter-on-quarter in early 2026 and standing more than two-thirds above 2025 levels, with the vertical forecast to deliver a 21% lift in value by the end of 2026.

This is being driven by lower borrowing costs, hybrid-working-driven refurbishment of existing stock, growing demand for premium, environmentally rated space, and the crossover between office and data centre development in city-fringe locations.

Retail construction remains subdued in the near term – forecast to nudge up just 1% by the end of 2026 – but is expected to accelerate to 10% growth in 2027 as consumer discretionary spending recovers, with supermarket expansion and refurbishment continuing to account for the largest share of retail construction activity.

Hotel and leisure construction is on a more volatile path: down around 12% in 2026 amid squeezed hospitality margins and reduced discretionary travel spending linked to Middle East-driven fuel costs, before an expected 11% rebound in 2027.

Industrial and Logistics Developments

Industrial and logistics construction is being reshaped by two powerful, partly overlapping forces: the continued growth of e-commerce-driven warehousing and the extraordinary acceleration of data centre construction linked to AI infrastructure.

Data centre construction projects valued up to £100 million are forecast to surge 13% within the office and industrial sector in 2026, with 29 data centre schemes in London alone already holding planning permission and expected to start this year.

The scale of individual data centre projects now rivals traditional infrastructure megaprojects.

London schemes include an £8 billion AWS build, a £750 million Bidder Street project and a £400 million G Park Docklands development, while two of the largest schemes nationally sit outside the capital: the £5 billion CWL41 development in Bridgend, Wales, and the £3.4 billion AI Pathfinder project in the East Midlands.

Savills’ latest research notes that UK data centre vacancy has fallen from 27% in 2016 to just 8% in Q1 2026, with power availability, grid connection delays and planning friction now the primary constraints on how much of the announced pipeline can actually be delivered, rather than a lack of investor appetite.

Traditional industrial and warehousing construction faces a softer near-term outlook – Glenigan expects a 9% downturn in industrial starts in 2026 – but forecasts a strong rebound of 16% in 2027 and a further 5% in 2028, supported by the National Planning Policy and Infrastructure Strategy’s emphasis on logistics capacity, continued e-commerce growth, and supply chain reconfiguration away from just-in-time models.

Regional Hotspots Across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

England

Within England, activity is increasingly polarised around infrastructure and technology-linked corridors rather than uniform regional growth.

London and the wider South East continue to dominate office, data centre and residential high-value development, even as planning permission timelines there remain the longest in the country – taking an average of 616 days in 2024, up from 167 days in 2011.

Transport-led regeneration is a growing theme outside London too, with Yorkshire benefiting from rail investment tied to the TransPennine Route Upgrade and Leeds station enhancement, and the Oxford-Cambridge corridor positioned to benefit from the £6 billion East West Rail scheme.

Scotland

Scotland’s construction sector is running its own, somewhat separate cycle from the rest of the UK.

Total Scottish construction output is projected at close to £17.5 billion in 2026, with the Scottish Government’s January 2026 Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline committing over £11 billion to key projects and programmes over the following four years – including £4.1 billion to support 36,000 affordable homes, £1.2 billion to renew Scotland’s rail fleet and ferries, £700 million for two new prisons, and continued progress on the roughly £1.94 billion A9 dualling contracts between Perth and Inverness.

As CCE News has reported in its dedicated Scotland coverage, the country’s builders closed 2025 with workloads still expanding and infrastructure activity posting a net balance of +16% in Q4 2025, even as private housing and private commercial workloads contracted over the same period.

Data centre interest is also emerging as a genuine growth theme, with 17 new data centre schemes submitted for planning across Scotland, although grid capacity and environmental objections are likely to slow conversion of that pipeline into construction starts.

The most acute constraint remains labour. The CITB estimates Scotland will need approximately 3,590 additional construction workers every year through 2029 simply to sustain current demand, while tender prices in Scotland have been running ahead of the UK average – up 3.4% annually in the most recent quarter against a 2.3% UK figure, according to Thomson Gray’s Construction Market Intelligence.

Wales

Wales features prominently in the current data centre and industrial investment cycle, most notably through the £5 billion CWL41 scheme in Bridgend – one of the largest data centre developments in the UK outside London.

Housing and infrastructure delivery in Wales continues to be shaped by devolved planning policy and targeted rail investment, including at least £445 million earmarked for rail enhancement across the nation as part of the UK Government’s ten-year infrastructure strategy.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland’s construction market remains smaller in scale than the other UK nations but continues to track UK-wide themes around housing delivery, infrastructure renewal and workforce planning.

The CITB’s UK-wide Construction Workforce Outlook, produced with Oxford Economics, extends its regional breakdown to Northern Ireland alongside England, Scotland and Wales, projecting construction output growth across all devolved nations over the 2026-2030 period, albeit with performance varying by local economic conditions and sector mix.

Government Investment and Planning Reforms

Government policy is arguably doing more to shape the medium-term structure of the UK construction industry in 2026 than any other single factor.

On housing, the revised NPPF – alongside the Planning and Infrastructure Act, which received Royal Assent in December 2025 – represents what ministers describe as the most significant rewrite of planning rules in more than a decade.

Measures include mandatory council housing targets, a formal definition of lower-quality “grey belt” land, “golden rules” requiring developer contributions to local infrastructure, and a new National Scheme of Delegation intended to speed up planning committee decisions on major applications.

On infrastructure, the government’s ten-year National Infrastructure Strategy sets out a shift toward a more coordinated approach to project planning and delivery, built around three pillars: reforming institutions such as the new National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA); providing long-term funding certainty and a stable pipeline of projects; and removing structural barriers to delivery, including through simplified Green Book appraisal guidance due in early 2026.

Notably, government has also begun signalling explicit support for Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) and industrialised, factory-based building approaches, referencing them in both the June 2025 Spending Review and the broader infrastructure and industrial strategies as a tool to relieve pressure on skills and materials while improving delivery consistency – a theme picked up in detail in Section 13.

With hopes of a recovery consistently dashed last year, firms in the construction supply chain are bracing themselves for another difficult year that is still laced with risks, challenges and uncertainty.  — Rebecca Larkin, Head of Construction Research, CPA

Labour Shortages and the Skills Gap

Skills availability, not demand or materials, is now widely regarded as UK construction’s single most binding constraint on delivery.

CITB’s Industry Picture 2026 report warns that “not enough people are entering the industry, too many experienced workers are leaving, and productivity has not improved at a sufficient rate to plug the gap,” putting government housing, infrastructure and retrofit targets directly at risk.

The board’s Construction Workforce Outlook estimates an average of 41,200 extra workers will be needed each year between 2026 and 2030 – around 206,000 additional workers over the five-year period – to grow the workforce from its current level to a projected 2.68 million by 2030.

Other industry estimates paint an even starker picture of cumulative need: separate CITB-derived projections cited across the sector put the requirement at 240,000 to 251,500 additional workers by 2028-2029, with more than 230,000 specifically needed for net-zero retrofit work alone by 2030.

Around 40% of the current construction workforce is over the age of 45, and by 2035 more than a third of today’s workers are expected to have retired, while the post-Brexit end of free movement has removed a pipeline of EU labour that once made up an estimated 8-12% of the UK construction workforce, rising above 25% in central London.

Skills Metric Figure
Extra workers needed per year, 2026-2030 (CITB Workforce Outlook) ~41,200
Cumulative extra workers needed by 2028/29 (various CITB-based estimates) 240,000–251,500
Net-zero retrofit specialists needed by 2030 230,000+
Share of workforce aged 45+ ~40%
Scotland: additional workers needed per year to 2029 ~3,590

 

Government and industry responses are converging on similar levers: a £600 million skills package including new Technical Excellence Colleges and expanded skills bootcamps, reform of the Growth and Skills Levy to fund shorter, more targeted training, and continued investment in apprenticeships, alongside growing employer interest in offsite manufacturing and digital tools as a way of doing more with a constrained workforce.

In Scotland specifically, the Tertiary Education and Training (Funding and Governance) (Scotland) Act, passed in January 2026, gives ministers new powers to fund apprenticeships directly – though industry bodies including FMB Scotland argue funding, frozen in real terms for years, has not kept pace with either demand or rising employment costs.

Material Costs and Inflation

After a period of relative stabilisation through 2024 and into 2025, construction material cost inflation has re-accelerated sharply in 2026, driven by the twin pressures of the Middle East conflict’s impact on oil and energy prices and new international tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper.

Government figures show the price of aggregates rose 8.4% and fabricated structural steel 8.2% in the year to March 2026, with overall materials inflation across all types of construction work running at 2.6% to 2.9% and accelerating on a monthly basis as the year progressed.

The CPA’s own analysis is blunt about the mechanism at work: UK industrial energy prices can account for up to a third of total manufacturing costs for some products, particularly oil-based and energy-intensive materials, meaning the direct impact of the conflict is likely to show up as double-digit product price inflation through the second half of 2026.

Separately, tariffs on imported steel, aluminium and copper – some running as high as 50% on steel mill products – have added an estimated 6% to overall construction material costs relative to a 2024 baseline, according to Cushman & Wakefield analysis, with construction input prices rising at a 12.6% annualised rate in early 2026, the fastest pace since 2022.

Looking further ahead, the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) forecasts tender prices will rise by around 15% and building costs by a further 14% by 2030 – evidence, BCIS argues, that the inflation challenge facing UK construction has become structural rather than purely cyclical, driven by the combined, compounding effects of persistent skills shortages, energy price volatility and fragile international supply chains.

For contractors, this cost environment has already had a harsh financial impact: the sector recorded 3,973 insolvencies in the year to July 2025, representing 17% of all UK corporate insolvencies, with the £700 million owed to suppliers and subcontractors following the collapse of contractor ISG in 2024 a stark illustration of how quickly rising costs can undermine even established firms.

Sustainability and Net-Zero Construction

Net-zero delivery has moved from a policy aspiration to one of the largest single drivers of construction labour and investment demand in the UK.

CITB estimates that more than 230,000 additional skilled workers will be needed specifically for retrofit work by 2030, spanning heat pump installation, insulation upgrades, low-carbon materials specification and building fabric improvements across the country’s 28 million-strong existing housing stock.

Government policy in this space has been mixed in its momentum through 2026.

The Warm Homes Plan continues to channel long-term investment into solar PV and heat pump deployment, and remains a partial offset to falling private housing RM&I demand as some homeowners prioritise energy security amid rising bills.

However, the government’s decision to end the ECO4 and ECO+ energy-efficiency schemes in March 2026, with no replacement yet confirmed, has removed a significant funding stream for lower-income household retrofit and is expected to weigh on that segment of RM&I activity through 2026 and 2027.

At the building level, sustainability credentials are increasingly a baseline commercial requirement rather than a differentiator.

BREEAM Excellent and Passivhaus-equivalent standards are now commonly specified on university, laboratory and public sector schemes, typically adding 8-15% to base construction costs but increasingly demanded by institutional funders and public procurement frameworks alike.

Updates to Building Regulations Part L (energy performance) and Part F (ventilation) have added a further 3-8% to build costs across residential and commercial typologies compared with pre-2022 standards – a cost increase that is now simply built into how UK developments are priced and financed.

Digital Transformation, AI, BIM and Modern Methods of Construction

2026 is shaping up as an inflection point in UK construction’s historically slow digital adoption curve.

Industry surveys now put Building Information Modelling (BIM) usage at around 65% of construction firms using it on at least half of their projects, while roughly 60% of contractors report using IoT sensors to monitor equipment performance and site conditions.

AI adoption is moving even faster: a recent IFS study of more than 300 senior construction and engineering executives found 91% expect to increase AI investment in 2026, with the sector tipped to become one of the most AI-first industries of any studied.

The most immediate, practical AI use cases in UK construction today cluster around predictive analytics for project risk and scheduling, automated safety inspection analysis drawn from hundreds of site inspections, and AI-assisted clash detection and model quality checking layered on top of BIM.

Digital twins – continuously updated virtual replicas of physical assets that combine BIM, IoT sensor data and AI-driven analytics – are increasingly discussed as the next major evolution beyond static BIM models, extending digital tools from design and construction into long-term asset operation.

Modern Methods of Construction (MMC), including off-site manufacturing, panelised systems and volumetric modular housing, continue to gain policy and industry momentum as a structural response to the skills shortage detailed in Section 10.

HS2 itself has become a flagship demonstrator of industrialised construction techniques, including factory production of precast concrete components, and government has explicitly referenced MMC support within both the 2025 Spending Review and the broader infrastructure and industrial strategies.

For contractors and suppliers, the practical barrier is no longer technological capability but organisational culture and legacy systems – roughly 63% of construction and engineering firms plan to adopt new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems within the next one to two years specifically to create the data foundation needed for AI to scale.

Major Opportunities for Contractors and Suppliers

  • Infrastructure and utilities work: with infrastructure the only major sector forecast to grow through 2026, contractors with energy, water (AMP8) and transport sector experience are best positioned to weather the downturn affecting housing and commercial work.
  • Data centres and digital infrastructure: the fastest-growing single construction category in the UK, with a multi-billion-pound pipeline of hyperscale and AI-training facility projects, though power availability and grid connection timelines will determine which schemes actually convert to construction starts.
  • Office refurbishment and repositioning: rather than new speculative build, demand is concentrated in upgrading existing office stock to premium, energy-efficient, hybrid-work-ready standards – a lower-risk, faster-turnaround opportunity than ground-up development.
  • Retrofit and net-zero specialist trades: heat pump installation, insulation, low-carbon materials and Passivhaus-standard delivery represent a structurally growing market segment even as broader RM&I activity softens, provided firms can secure the specialist skills required.
  • Modern Methods of Construction and offsite manufacturing: firms that can offer factory-produced, quality-controlled components are increasingly attractive to both public sector clients pursuing schools, hospitals and prison programmes, and housebuilders needing to do more with a constrained on-site workforce.
  • Public sector programmes: school rebuilding, healthcare estate upgrades and prison capacity expansion all carry confirmed multi-year government funding commitments that offer more programme certainty than private sector-led development in the current climate.
  • Refurbishment and adaptation of existing industrial and commercial buildings: as an alternative to competing for large new-build logistics sheds, conversion and repositioning of existing stock offers a lower-capital entry point into growing sectors like light industrial and specialist retail.

Risks Facing the Sector

  • Geopolitical and energy price shocks: the Middle East conflict remains the dominant near-term risk, with the CPA’s own forecast explicitly conditioned on how long regional disruption and elevated oil and energy prices persist – a survey found nearly seven in ten UK construction companies fear “severe” impacts over the following six months.
  • Structural skills shortages: with an ageing workforce, the end of EU free movement, and demand for 200,000-plus additional workers over the coming years, labour availability – not demand or materials – is now the most common cause of UK construction programme delay.
  • Materials cost volatility and tariffs: new international tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper, combined with energy-intensive manufacturing costs, are adding several percentage points to project budgets with little near-term prospect of relief.
  • Contractor insolvency risk: elevated cost pressure combined with fixed-price contracts agreed before recent cost inflation has already driven a wave of high-profile insolvencies, with construction accounting for roughly one in six UK corporate insolvencies.
  • Planning and delivery uncertainty: despite significant reform, average planning permission timelines remain historically long in parts of the country, and major projects such as HS2 continue to experience cost and schedule resets that undermine broader investor confidence in UK infrastructure delivery.
  • Housing affordability and viability tension: rising build costs are colliding with constrained buyer affordability and mortgage market caution, leaving many housebuilders caught between sites that are unviable at achievable sale prices and sites where sale prices are unaffordable to buyers.
  • Grid and power constraints: the data centre and renewable energy construction boom is increasingly limited not by capital or planning permission but by the physical availability of grid connections and power capacity, which could slow the conversion of an otherwise strong pipeline into completed projects.

Forecast for the Next Two to Three Years

The consensus among the UK’s principal construction forecasters – the CPA, Glenigan, BCIS and CITB – is that 2026 will prove to be the trough of the current cycle, with a broader recovery taking hold from 2027 as the geopolitical shock recedes, interest rates continue to ease and planning reforms bed in.

Forecaster 2026 2027 2028
CPA (Spring 2026) -2.5% +1.2% n/a
Glenigan (Summer 2026) -1% +11% +4%
CPA – Infrastructure only +3.2% +3.4% n/a
Glenigan – Private housebuilding subdued +13% +5%

 

Within that broad trajectory, the sector-level divergence described throughout this report is expected to persist into 2027 and beyond.

Infrastructure, data centres and office refurbishment are likely to continue leading growth, while private housing and RM&I activity should stage the sharpest rebound precisely because they have fallen furthest – Glenigan’s forecast of 13% growth in private housebuilding for 2027 reflects both improving fundamentals and a low comparative base.

Industrial and logistics construction is expected to follow a similar pattern: a further dip in 2026 before a 16% rebound in 2027 as e-commerce and supply chain reconfiguration demand resumes.

The principal swing factors for this outlook are, in order of likely impact: the duration and severity of Middle East-driven energy price disruption; the pace of Bank of England interest rate cuts and their pass-through to mortgage affordability and development finance; the practical delivery of planning reforms already legislated but not yet fully operational; and the extent to which government succeeds in closing the construction skills gap through the 2026-2030 period covered by CITB’s Construction Workforce Outlook.

Key Takeaways

  • UK construction output was worth £142.2 billion in 2024 and accounts for around 6% of GDP, but the market has effectively plateaued in real terms since 2023.
  • The CPA now forecasts a 2.5% contraction in UK construction output for 2026 – a sharp downgrade driven primarily by Middle East conflict-related energy and materials cost inflation – with a partial 1.2% recovery expected in 2027.
  • Private housing and RM&I are absorbing the bulk of the 2026 downturn, forecast to fall 7% and 8% respectively, while infrastructure remains the only major sector still forecast to grow.
  • The government’s 1.5 million homes target is running behind pace, with only around 22.8% of the target delivered as net additions between July 2024 and March 2026, keeping planning reform and housing delivery firmly in the political spotlight.
  • Data centres and AI-related digital infrastructure represent the fastest-growing segment of UK construction, though power and grid capacity – not capital or planning permission alone – are now the binding constraint on delivery.
  • Skills shortages remain the sector’s single most persistent structural risk, with CITB estimating 200,000-plus additional workers needed over the coming years, over 230,000 of them for net-zero retrofit alone.
  • Material costs are rising again in 2026 after a period of relative stability, driven by energy price spikes and new tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper, with BCIS forecasting a further 15% rise in tender prices by 2030.
  • Digital transformation is accelerating rapidly, with BIM now used on at least half of projects by around 65% of firms and 91% of construction and engineering executives planning to increase AI investment in 2026.
  • Scotland’s construction market – valued at close to £17.5 billion in 2026 – is running a somewhat separate cycle, with infrastructure and renewables outperforming even as housing and skills challenges mirror the wider UK picture.
  • Most forecasters agree 2026 represents the trough of the current cycle, with broader recovery expected from 2027 onwards as energy disruption eases, interest rates fall further and planning reforms take fuller effect.

Also Read

Top UK Construction Regulatory Changes to Watch in 2026

UK Construction Firms Under Pressure: Navigating a Challenging Landscape as Insolvencies Persist

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