As Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) approaches its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings announcement on May 28, Wall Street analysts appear more divided than ever.
The AI chip giant, once a consensus darling among investors and tech enthusiasts alike, now finds itself at a critical juncture.
A recent bearish call has disrupted the near-unanimous optimism, forcing market watchers to reassess their expectations in light of Nvidia’s meteoric rise and the broader dynamics of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
The Bull Case: Record-Breaking Momentum and AI Dominance
Nvidia’s dominance in the high-performance graphics processing unit (GPU) market is undisputed.
The company controls an estimated 80% of the AI chip market, with its GPUs powering everything from OpenAI’s ChatGPT to Google and Amazon’s cloud-based AI workloads.
In its previous earnings release, Nvidia reported a stunning 265% year-over-year revenue growth, driven primarily by soaring demand for its data center products. Analysts expect another strong showing for Q1 FY2026, with estimates suggesting:
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Revenue of $24.6 billion (up 66% YoY)
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Earnings per share (EPS) of $5.59 (up 450% YoY)
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If those figures hold, they will cement Nvidia’s place as the undisputed AI chip king—at least for now.
Supporters argue that Nvidia is still in the early innings of capitalizing on AI infrastructure buildouts.
With the rollout of its new Blackwell GPU architecture, the company is expected to unlock even higher performance and efficiency, targeting an expanding customer base in autonomous vehicles, robotics, and generative AI startups.
Historical patterns also support the bullish outlook. According to Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq, Nvidia stock has typically rallied after Q1 earnings.
This seasonal momentum has led many analysts to encourage investors to “buy the dip” ahead of the May 28 report.
The Bear Case: Overvaluation, Risk Saturation, and the First Sell Rating
However, not everyone is buying the hype.
In a surprising twist, Seaport Research Partners’ Jay Goldberg recently initiated Nvidia coverage with a rare Wall Street “Sell” rating, assigning a price target of just $100—well below its current market valuation.
Goldberg argues that Nvidia’s explosive growth has already been priced in, and that the company is now trading at excessive multiples that reflect unrealistic long-term expectations.
Among the key concerns raised:
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Valuation Risk: Nvidia is trading at a forward P/E ratio of over 35x, significantly higher than its semiconductor peers.
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Supply Saturation: With hyperscalers and cloud giants already stockpiling chips, demand could moderate in the coming quarters.
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Geopolitical and Regulatory Headwinds: Increasing U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China could cut into Nvidia’s international sales.
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Competition Rising: AMD and Intel are ramping up their AI offerings, while custom chips from big tech firms like Google (TPUs) and Amazon (Inferentia) threaten long-term market share.
Goldberg’s sell rating has sparked broader debate on whether Nvidia has become the latest example of a tech bubble inflated by investor FOMO around AI.
Market Implications: Volatility Ahead
With such polarizing views, Nvidia’s May 28 earnings are poised to be a major market catalyst.
If the company delivers another blowout quarter, it could silence the skeptics—at least temporarily—and reignite bullish momentum. But if growth slows, or guidance disappoints, the fallout could be swift and significant.
Options markets are already pricing in heightened volatility, suggesting that traders expect a major post-earnings move, either up or down.
The outcome could set the tone not only for Nvidia’s stock but also for the broader AI and semiconductor sectors.
What Should Investors Watch?
As Nvidia’s earnings approach, investors should keep an eye on several key metrics:
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Data Center Revenue Growth – The core driver of Nvidia’s current valuation.
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Blackwell GPU Rollout Details – Clarity on production timelines and early adoption.
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Forward Guidance – Will Nvidia maintain its aggressive growth outlook?
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International Sales Trends – Any hints of impact from China restrictions.
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CapEx from Key Customers – Insights from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon may reveal demand trajectory.
Conclusion: Caution or Conviction?
Nvidia stands at a pivotal point. For bulls, the company remains a foundational pillar of the AI revolution.
For bears, it’s a cautionary tale of overheated expectations. What’s certain is that the May 28 earnings call will be one of the most closely watched events in the tech world this quarter.
Whether Nvidia will silence its doubters or validate the skeptics remains to be seen—but either way, a reckoning is near.
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